How long until life returns to normal?

At the start of the first lockdown the public were highly optimistic that normal life would return within 6 months. Understandably, that optimism faded as the pandemic went on. However, recently with the arrival of several vaccines people are starting to feel more upbeat with the end hopefully in sight.

Public opinion on when life will return to normal has varied throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. In the early stages of the crisis optimism was high, with more than half of the surveyed population believing that normal life would return within six months.  Understandably, as time went on that optimism faded. By mid May only 28% thought normal life was six months or less away, and 25% believed it was at least a year away.

After the lifting of the first lockdown and the reopening of pubs, bars and restaurants in late May, the trend shifted slightly towards optimism, but this was short lived. As people saw the cases surge once again and restrictions reinstated, the public once again became pessimistic. The pessimism reached a peak in mid September, at which point 41% of people thought normal life would was at least a year away, while only 9% believed it would return within six months.

The announcement in November of successful vaccine trials boosted public optimism, and by December 28% thought normal life would return within six months and only 18% felt it was more than a year away.  

These data do not capture the period just before Christmas when the highly contagious variant caused significant disruption to the festive season. It will be interesting to revisit these data to see what effect that development has had.