Excess deaths by age group

Deaths from COVID-19 are only part of the pandemic picture. England and Sweden have similar deaths p/million (689 and 590 respectively), but excess mortality stats show the UK has paid a far greater price. Are the contrasting strategies a major factor?

Measuring the impact on human health during the COVID-19 pandemic is not simply a matter of counting the deaths directly from the virus. Government actions to control the virus such as lockdown and the closing of schools and workplaces, along with the behavioural changes in society brought about by fear and uncertainty all have an additional impact on health and mortality.

Excess deaths, as shown in the charts above, measure the difference between the observed number of deaths from all causes and the expected number of deaths during a specific time period. This difference is expressed as a percentage in the charts above, known as ‘P-scores’.

Taking into consideration deaths which may occur as an indirect result of the pandemic, excess deaths give us an indication of the total cost to human life of the COVID-19 crisis. It should be noted however this may still underestimate the total mortality associated with the pandemic, as lives lost and shortened due to factors such as unemployment, economic suffering and undiagnosed medical conditions and delayed treatments may not manifest until many months or years in the future.

The UK and Sweden have taken very different approaches in combating the virus, with the UK employing stringent national and local lockdowns. Sweden on the other hand has taken a softer strategy, relying on a high degree of trust between citizens and state to curb the spread of the virus through sensible non-compulsory recommendations and guidance issued to the public.

Although recorded deaths per capita from COVID-19 in the UK and Sweden are not dissimilar (689 and 590 per million respectively), as the above charts show excess mortality in all age groups is substantially higher in England and Wales than in Sweden. These data suggest that the widespread indirect effects of the crisis have been felt more severely in England than in Sweden. Whether the contrasting strategies taken by the two countries is a significant factor in the difference in excess mortality may not become clear for some time yet. Tracking these data into the future will undoubtedly aid in the post-mortem analysis of the global response to the virus.